Vonovia: Long-Term Modelling Shows Resilience; A Short-Term Positive Trigger Is Probable

Vonovia SE trades at a deep discount after a >40% share price drop, driven by rate expectations and Berlin's political risk. Long-term modeling shows VNA can sustain 6–7% dividend yields through 2035, even if refinancing costs rise to 4.5%. Rental growth, conservative asset sales, and declining leverage support stable cash flows and improving covenants, despite regulatory headwinds.