Vistra: The Market Is Underpricing Its Shift To Contracted Earnings

Vistra (VST) is shifting from volatile merchant power revenue to more contracted, predictable earnings via long-term PPAs and capacity auctions. VST's 2026 guidance implies 21.8% YoY Adjusted EBITDA growth, with further upside from the Cogentrix acquisition and Meta contracts not yet included in 2027 outlook. The stock trades at a significant discount to sector medians (GAAP FWD P/E 15.05x vs 19.04x), supported by increasing hedged and contracted revenue streams.