Vistra: Texas Turned Blue, And The 2026 Forecast Didn't Move

Vistra (VST) fell 13.8% after a Texas gubernatorial upset introduced significant policy uncertainty around data center growth and energy demand. The Texas segment is 28% of VST's EBITDA; a potential moratorium threatens future data center contracts, though most 2027 output is already hedged. VST's 2026 free cash flow yield exceeds 10%, with intrinsic value estimated at $155–$165 per share, 22–27% above current levels.