Mineralys: Fairly Valued Near $17 As Baxfendy Launch Validates Slow ASI Ramp (Upgrade)

Mineralys Therapeutics is launching lorundrostat, a second-to-market ASI, with limited differentiation from BAXFENDY on efficacy or safety. MLYS faces AstraZeneca's entrenched cardiorenal franchise, restrictive payer policies, and step therapy barriers, limiting near-term market penetration. Peak sales for lorundrostat are modeled at ~$800 million, but the current valuation appears fair; I upgrade from 'Sell' to 'Hold' given the risk/reward balance.