McDonald's: The Earnings Bounce Is Pricing In A Turnaround That Hasn't Happened Yet

McDonald's is rated Sell at $280, with a fair value estimated near $210, reflecting concerns over traffic and demanding cash flow assumptions. U.S. comparable sales declined 0.2% as higher check sizes failed to offset falling visits, raising doubts about sustainable traffic recovery. MCD's franchise model remains structurally advantaged, but new international units generate lower direct revenue, and expansion hasn't translated into higher free cash flow.