Ardelyx: Upgrading To Hold After Q3, But Risks Still Dominate

Ardelyx is upgraded to 'Hold' after a 40% stock decline, despite no fundamental change in its story. IBSRELA drives growth, but SG&A intensity, limited XPHOZAH contribution, and tenapanor concentration constrain upside. DCF model yields a $4.90/share valuation, but 72.6% of the value depends on uncertain terminal assumptions beyond 2034.